Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Statistical Analysis of Deaths on Colorado 14ers this Decade (2010-2016)

The Elk Range, statistically one of the most dangerous
ranges in the state
The blossoming popularity of hiking and climbing on Colorado's 14ers has also brought an increase in accidents on these peaks. This article is an attempt to analyze the statistics from these terrible incidents and (hopefully) discover some useful conclusions to prevent such tragedies from occurring again in the future.

While every effort has been made to ensure that the data is complete, it is quite possible that some or several accidents have been overlooked. Every year there are accidents that go unreported and sifting through the barrage of information on the internet is not easy, especially regarding events that may have occurred several years ago. Still, this information can prove a useful tool in keeping all of who venture into the highest places of  this amazing state safe.

STATS AT A GLANCE

Total deaths on Colorado 14ers (2010-2016): 45
Deaths by mountain: Longs Peak (8), Maroon Bells (7), Crestone Needle (5), Crestone Peak (3), Kit Carson (3), Capitol (2), Snowmass Mountain (2), El Diente (2), Harvard (2), Evans (2), Missouri (2), Torreys (2), Quandary (1), Windom (1), Antero (1), Princeton (1), Little Bear (1)
Deaths by gender: M (41), F (4)
Deaths by age range: >20 (2), 20-29 (10), 30-39 (11), 40-49 (6), 50-59 (11), 60 or over (5)
14er deaths by mountain range: Sangre De Cristo (12), Front Range (12),  Elk Range (11), Sawatch Range (6), San Juan Range (3), Tenmile-Mosquito Range (1)

(Note: I have combined the Maroon Bells in the above list due to the number of accidents that occurred on the traverse between them making it hard to attribute these deaths to one or the other of these peaks) 

ANALYSIS/CONCLUSIONS

There are a few glaring details from the above statistics that are immediately apparent. For one, about half of these deaths (23) occurred on only five mountains (Longs Peak, the Maroon Bells, and the two Crestones). While none of these should really come as a surprise, it is interesting to see just how concentrated this list is. Longs Peak attracts a high number of accidents (almost all of which occurred on the standard Keyhole Route) because it's steep and exposed from every approach. The numbers are further inflated, however, because Longs is by far the busiest of any 14er in the state. On the Crestones, it is noteworthy that half of the eight deaths between the two of them occurred on Crestone Needle's Ellingwood Arete, a technical (5.7) multipitch climb, and only three fatal accidents have occurred on their standard routes. Per capita, the Deadly Bells lead for the dubious prize so far this decade as the most dangerous 14ers by their easiest lines. It doesn't take a Nobel Prize winner to understand why: these stunning peaks maybe be beautiful but their rock is far from it.

Another glaring and thought-provoking statistic is the ratio of males to females that have died on Colorado 14ers. A staggering 91% of the 14er fatalities this decade were males. From an analytical standpoint it is hard to say whether this reflects the numbers of males attempting 14ers over the numbers of females or some other factor (i.e. male tendency towards risk-taking, etc.)

It is also quite clear that the 14ers of the Sangre De Cristo and Elk Ranges are the deadliest. While the Front Range is tied with the Sangres for most fatal accidents total, this stat is skewed by the sheer number of attempts, as the Front Range 14ers (particularly Longs) are some of the state's most popular.

SOME SURPRISES

Capitol Peak a 14er in Colorado's deadly Elk Range
Capitol Peak has been site of two fatal accidents
so far this decade
What can also be useful from a data set like this is considering not just what is there but what is not. For example, neither Sunlight Peak, Wilson Peak, nor Pyramid Peak appear on this list. These three mountains are oft-touted as some of the hardest/most dangerous in the state yet nobody has died on any of them so far this decade. Also, there was only one death on Little Bear, another peak that is often regarded as the most dangerous of all the 14ers. In all these instances, however, these low numbers could be the product of much fewer numbers of attempts.

The San Juans. A beautiful range with a large number of rugged 14ers notorious for crumbly rock, yet we only see three deaths from this range. This again, could partially be a product of their distance from the populous cities of the Front Range, and therefore enjoy a proportionally smaller number of attempts. Or maybe the San Juans are not as fierce or chossy as their reputation makes out.

HOW TO AVOID AN ACCIDENT

Statistically speaking, there are a couple of easy things you can do to virtually eliminate your odds of ending up on a list like this in the future:

1) If your main goal in Colorado mountaineering is simply not to die, then do NOT climb the Maroon Bells, Longs Peak, or the Crestones. Again, over half of the fatal accidents this decade have occurred on these five peaks. Of course, many people simply cannot put their backs to the siren call of these dangerous peaks. For those, perhaps extra care should be taken to exercise the greatest possible caution: climb in good weather, wear a helmet, start early, avoid crowds, and tread lightly!

2) Be a woman. Apparently simply being a woman slices your chances of dying on a 14er considerably. However, I have not been able to find reliable stats on the ratio of female to male climbers attempting 14ers, or even better, starting out on individual peaks, so it is hard to know women's odds of dying are actually slimmer or if the difference is merely proportional.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Though many of us like to say we "live" for the mountains, probably none of us wants to die there before our time. We accept a certain degree of risk knowing risk is the only path to reward. These 45 deaths are all tragic. The widespread consequences of losing even one life can ripple out and touch so many. But compared to the tens (perhaps hundreds) of thousands of people that attempted Colorado's 14ers this decade, 45 deaths is a very small percentage. We all venture to these high places knowing what risks we take and the potential consequences of our actions. We are willing to accept these calculated risks because it is only in the mountains that we truly feel alive.

RELATED POSTS

-2016 mountaineering deaths in Colorado
-Climber dies on Thunder Pyramid
-Climber dies on Maroon Peak
-Climber Dies on Capitol Peak

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